SinoInsight 1
Since Xi Jinping visited Wuhan on March 10 and the World Health Organization declared a pandemic on March 11, the CCP has been spreading the propaganda narrative that China is now a “safe haven” from the coronavirus. The CCP’s propaganda has proven to be effective, and perhaps more so than the regime expected in examining information in state media and official documents.
On March 18, Beijing Centers for Disease Control and Prevention deputy director Pang Xinghuo said at a press conference that the epidemic situation is worse outside of China and recommended that international students should not return to China if they do not have to. Beijing’s airport public security authorities also noted that they had transferred people 18,242 times from the airport to a new wing of the China International Exhibition Center for quarantine between March 10 to March 18.
On March 19, the Beijing municipal government’s coronavirus epidemic prevention and control leading group office issued a notice on further tightening restrictions for people entering the city from overseas. The notice stated that all personnel entering Beijing from abroad have to be held in a centralized quarantine area for 14 days at their own expense. Only those who have “met strict evaluation and agree to home observation” will be exempted from staying in a centralized quarantine area.
OUR TAKE
1. We wrote in previous editions of this newsletter that the CCP has yet to bring the coronavirus epidemic under control (for example, see here, here and here). However, the CCP can “curb” the global coronavirus narrative through spreading propaganda and disinformation at home and abroad (大外宣), something that it has been aggressively doing recently.
The CCP’s “China is a safe haven” disinformation is part of its broader “China is the world’s savior” propaganda narrative. This narrative is designed to generate the impression that the PRC government has successfully contained the coronavirus in China while the pandemic situation worsens, and that PRC with its “superior” authoritarian system and measures is now going to “save the world” and “incompetent” governments from the “CCP virus” (Wuhan virus).
Many overseas Chinese have fallen for the CCP’s propaganda and disinformation, and a number of them are rushing back to the mainland to escape the epidemic. This phenomenon, however, has increased the already very high levels of political risk facing the CCP regime.
2. The flood of overseas Chinese returning to China creates the following problems for the PRC:
- China’s hospitals and quarantine sites, already strained from local cases, now have to accommodate imported cases. The Beijing CDC’s March 18 recommendation that international students not return to China unless they have to is a sign that the PRC’s healthcare system cannot cope (number of beds, medical supplies, finances, etc.) with the rapid mass influx of people from abroad.
- Many of those returning to China from abroad will likely be from the middle class and higher and are likely to be well-educated. This means that they will be inclined to criticize and lead efforts to criticize the PRC government when they find that conditions in the mainland are not as ideal as depicted by the CCP, when they are subjected to stringent (and even abusive) policing, and when they find that there is far less freedom to speak out in China as compared to other countries. The CCP is typically wary of overly antagonizing the middle class because to do so would erode its political legitimacy.
- The return of international students is a particularly troublesome matter for the CCP. As noted in the previous point, many overseas Chinese will likely be from the middle class, and some Chinese students could even have parents who are Party princelings, CCP officials, or successful businessmen. And should returning international students get infected and even die from the coronavirus in China, their parents will definitely confront the PRC government over the matter; most Chinese families only have one child, and Chinese parents are typically very protective of them.
- In tracking Chinese social media, we have observed that returning Chinese students are finding things on the ground in China to be much less pleasant than the rose-tinted propaganda. For instance, some have complained about the terrible sanitary conditions of centralized quarantine sites, while others note that they are still required to pay medical fees despite claims from the PRC government that they will receive free medical treatment. The reality of the CCP’s coronavirus prevention and control measures will likely disillusion many so-called “little pinks” (小粉紅), or nationalistic youth who spread the CCP’s “patriotic” propaganda on their own accord.
3. The CCP’s “safe haven” disinformation could result in:
- Most of the returning overseas Chinese would likely land in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, and other large cities with international airports. If the mass influx persists, the PRC government could get local governments to “fetch” the new arrivals back to their home province to be quarantined and avoid straining the medical resources and finances of the capital and major cities.
- The CCP could step up “stability maintenance” efforts against the returning overseas Chinese, a move that would generate greater societal angst and anger towards the PRC government.
- Disillusioned international students would be less inclined to believe in CCP propaganda and could push for greater freedoms in China, including political change.
- The CCP’s external propaganda effort, which is designed to help it survive and dominate, could ironically thwart its ambitions as it loses supporters among returning overseas Chinese who have experienced its draconian epidemic prevention and control measures.
4. Businesses, investors, and governments must not be deceived by the CCP’s “safe haven” disinformation, and should continue to account for severe epidemic risks in China. Governments should consider pressing the PRC government to release accurate information about the coronavirus and expose the CCP’s propaganda narratives and disinformation.
SinoInsight 2
In a telephone call with Italian prime minister Giuseppe Conte on March 16, Xi Jinping said that the PRC is willing to work with Italy and the global pandemic control effort to create a “health Belt and Road” (健康丝绸之路).
On March 17, the People’s Liberation Army Daily reported that the PLA’s top biowarfare expert Major General Chen Wei and her research team had created a recombinant vaccine for the COVID-19 coronavirus, and that clinical trials for the vaccine had started on March 16. Chen said that preparation work was underway to manufacture the vaccine, which she described as “safe,” “effective,” was of good quality, and could be reproduced on a large scale.
A news report of the recombinant vaccine on the PRC Ministry of Defense website contained a picture of the vaccine which showed that they were manufactured on “Feb. 26, 2020.” The picture was later scrubbed and the content of the news report was entirely replaced.
OUR TAKE
1. We previously explained how the CCP plans to use the coronavirus pandemic to turn calamity into victory and advance its world domination agenda (see here, here, and here). The so-called “Health Belt and Road” and news about the development of a coronavirus vaccine are in line with the CCP’s domination agenda.
2. The CCP’s Belt and Road Initiative and global 5G deployment have met with difficulties in recent years due to strong pushback from the United States. The coronavirus pandemic, however, has afforded the CCP a chance to “rebrand” the Belt and Road so that it remains attractive and “advantageous” to countries who are part of the initiative or are considering joining the initiative. For instance, the CCP can promise countries who join the “Health Belt and Road” access to its coronavirus vaccine when it is ready; exporting the vaccine would be akin to exporting a new “technology.” If the Belt and Road’s “rebranding” as a “Health Belt and Road” is successful, the CCP would also have created for itself another channel to resolve its global 5G deployment problem.
3. International observers have recently noted that the PRC has been taking advantage of the pandemic to aid other countries and seize global leadership away from the United States. The so-called “Health Belt and Road” and the announcement of clinical tests for a coronavirus vaccine further add to the optics of the PRC being ready to take over from the U.S. in leading the world.
4. Based on publicly available information, it is difficult to tell if the CCP’s COVID-19 vaccine is genuine or fake. Regardless, the CCP has scored a public relations coup by giving the world the impression that it is ahead of others in finding an effective treatment for the coronavirus. Vaccines take time to produce and roll out—Anthony Fauci, the director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told President Donald Trump in early March that the quickest that a vaccine can be deployable is “a year to a year and a half, no matter how fast you go.” However, the CCP can and will start selling the fact that it is already doing clinical tests and will develop a treatment faster than other countries. The expectation of a PRC-created vaccine also gives it increased diplomatic, economic, and political leverage.
Observers should be skeptical of the CCP’s recombinant vaccine even if it proves to be deployable. The PRC has a history of producing faulty vaccines (see the 2018 vaccine scandal), and the quality of its coronavirus vaccine could likewise be suspect.
5. Before they were scrubbed, official pictures of the vaccine produced by Maj. Gen. Chen Wei’s research team indicated that they were manufactured on Feb. 26. That the vaccine could be produced in such a short span of time (the CCP only officially acknowledged the coronavirus epidemic on Jan. 20) is suspicious, especially in considering also that Maj. Gen. Chen took over China’s only P4-level biosafety laboratory in Wuhan in late January.
It is possible that Maj. Gen. Chen’s team was able to synthesize the vaccine very quickly because they were able to get ample data on the coronavirus or even a prototype vaccine from the P4 lab. Either case is suspicious and lends weight to the theory that COVID-19 is man-made and was part of a bioweapons program.