◎ The PRC’s recent public remarks about Hong Kong hold troubling implications.
On July 29, the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office of the State Council, Beijing’s top Hong Kong policy office, held its first press conference on the mass protests in Hong Kong since they began in early June. HKMAO spokesperson Yang Guang delivered a statement and took questions.
On July 30, Hong Kong authorities charged 44 protesters, including a 16-year-old girl, with rioting. A conviction can carry a 10-year prison sentence.
On July 31, Chen Daoxiang, the commander of the People’s Liberation Army Garrison in Hong Kong, attended a reception to mark the 92nd anniversary of the founding of the PLA. Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam, former chief executive Tung Chee-hwa, Hong Kong Liaison Office director Wang Zhimin, and PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs Hong Kong commissioner Xie Feng were in attendance at the reception in the PLA Garrison in Hong Kong’s Central district. During the reception, Chen delivered remarks about the Hong Kong protests which echo those made by HKMAO spokesperson Yang Guang.
During the reception, the PLA Garrison in Hong Kong showed a video titled “Do Not Forget the Original Aspirations, Safeguard Hong Kong” featuring “anti-riot” exercises. In one sequence, a PLA soldier shouted, “all consequences are at your own risk” in Cantonese, the Chinese dialect spoken in Hong Kong, before rows of troops in riot gear marched forward in front of a red banner with the words, “Warning. Stop charging or we use force” written in English and Traditional Chinese script (Hong Kong police use a similar banner). The following sequences show troops firing what appeared to be tear gas canisters into the air as they advance on “protesters” with truncheons and shields. The video also featured scenes of armored personnel carriers clearing barriers, troops laying barbed wire, and “protesters” being handcuffed and led away.
The PLA Garrison video, the remarks of Yang Guang and Chen Daoxiang, and the stiff charges against the arrested protesters have troubling implications for Hong Kong.
Our take:
We unpack Yang Guang and Chen Daoxiang’s statements below.
1. Protest designation
Yang Guang said that after protests June 12, “some radical demonstrators deliberately created violent incidents” that were “completely beyond the scope of peaceful demonstrations.”
Analysis: In criticizing the demonstrations, HKMAO spokesperson Yang chose to emphasize isolated incidents of violence by protesters or skirmishes between protesters and the Hong Kong police where the police used disproportionate amount violence to disperse the protesters. Yang, however, did not mention anything about police violence against the protesters, cases of police abuse of authority, and allegations of triad-police collusion during gangster attacks on protesters in Yuen Long district on July 21. Nor did Yang explain that the demonstrations in Hong Kong escalated from June 12 onwards after the Hong Kong government decided to go ahead with the process of passing a controversial extradition law despite a peaceful protest by over a million people on June 9.
Yang Guang’s remarks indicate that the PRC will interpret developments in Hong Kong selectively to justify future direct intervention in the city’s affairs.
2. ‘Hopes’ and support
2.1. In his remarks, HKMAO spokesperson Yang Guang “hopes that people from all walks of life in Hong Kong will take a clear-cut stand in opposing and resisting violence.” He added that “radical protesters” have “touched” the “One Country, Two Systems” bottom line and that their actions “cannot be tolerated.”
Analysis: The phrase “take a clear-cut stand” (旗帜鲜明) has serious connotations in CCP parlance. Before the Tiananmen Square Massacre in June 1989, the People’s Daily published an “April 26 Editorial” titled “We Must Take a Clear-cut Stand Against Disturbances.” Yang Guang’s use of “clear-cut stand” harks back to June 1989 and telegraphs the central government’s hardline stance to the Hong Kong people.
2.2. Yang Guang also “hopes that Hong Kong society will cease political disputes as soon as possible, concentrate on developing the economy, and improve people’s livelihoods.” If chaos continues in Hong Kong, however, the whole society “will pay” (买单).
Analysis: First, Yang reverses the cause and effect of the sequence of events that led to mass demonstrations in Hong Kong. It was a political decision by the Hong Kong government to introduce an extradition bill that would place those in the city, including people who are just passing through, at risk of being sent to mainland China to stand trial. The people of Hong Kong and foreign businessmen will not be able to “develop the economy” or “improve people’s livelihoods” in peace when they are perpetually at risk of being vanished to the mainland on trumped-up charges.
Meanwhile, Yang’s remark that Hong Kong society “will pay” if chaos continues is a naked threat.
2.3. Yang Guang expresses support for Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam, her government, and the Hong Kong police force. He also expressed “firm support” for the punishment of “violent criminals” and the actions of “patriotic Hong Kong people” in defending the rule of law in the city.
Chen Daoxiang echoed Yang Guang’s points in his own remarks at the reception to mark the 92nd anniversary of the founding of the PLA.
Analysis: Yang and Chen’s remarks indicate that the CCP is using the excuse of “curbing violence” to justify and cover-up the Hong Kong police’s abuse of power and brutal suppression tactics. A cynical read of Yang and Chen’s support for the actions of “patriotic Hong Kong people” is that the CCP tacitly approves of the triad thugs attacking protesters in Hong Kong’s Yuen Long district on July 21.
Yang and Chen’s rhetoric is also strikingly similar to that of Carrie Lam’s government and pro-Beijing lawmakers, and offers no compromise or concession.
3. ‘One Country, Two Systems’ and the ‘Three Bottom Lines’
During the questions and answers segment of the press conference, HKMAO spokesperson Yang Guang stressed that “Two Systems” can only be discussed on the basis of “One Country” in the “One Country, Two Systems” model.
Yang added that the implementation of “One Country, Two Systems” must follow “three bottom lines”:
- The country’s sovereignty absolutely cannot be endangered;
- The authority of Party Central and the Hong Kong government cannot be challenged;
- Hong Kong absolutely cannot be used to infiltrate and subvert the mainland.
Chen Daoxiang repeated many of Yang’s points in his remarks at the PLA Garrison. “Recently, a series of extremely violent incidents in Hong Kong have seriously undermined Hong Kong’s prosperity and stability. The incidents seriously challenge the rule of law and social order in Hong Kong, seriously threaten the lives and property of Hong Kong residents, and seriously touch the bottom line of the ‘One Country, Two Systems’ principle. This is absolutely intolerable, and we strongly condemn these incidents,” he said.
Analysis: The CCP has made it clear that the “Two Systems” aspect of “One Country, Two Systems” can only be allowed to continue if the “three bottom lines” mentioned by Yang Guang are not breached. From the CCP’s standpoint, all three “bottom lines” have technically been breached:
- The vandalizing of the Hong Kong Liaison Office building on July 21 by some protesters can be viewed as “endangering the country’s sovereignty”;
- The mass demonstrations as a whole represent a challenge to Party Central and the Hong Kong government;
- Protests in districts frequented by mainland tourists and the Hong Kong international airport can be interpreted as an attempt to use Hong Kong to “infiltrate and subvert the mainland.”
On the flip side, an argument can be made that it was the CCP who breached the “One Country, Two Systems” model with its nonstop efforts to turn Hong Kong “red” via united front work and attempts to introduce so-called “patriotic education” into the school syllabus. Also, legal activity like the push to implement Article 23 in 2003, the National People’s Congress stepping in to interpret the Hong Kong Basic Law in 2016, and the extradition bill in 2019 are clear attempts by the PRC to erode the “Two Systems” and ensure that there is only “One Country.”
4. ‘Foreign interference’
HKMAO spokesperson Yang Guang said that Hong Kong’s affairs are China’s internal affairs and that outside forces cannot be allowed to interfere. “Some Western politicians have frequently made irresponsible and nitpicking remarks during this period, and some even show their support to the Hong Kong people. Their motive is nothing less than to mess up Hong Kong and turn it into trouble for China to advance the restriction or containment of China’s development,” he said.
Analysis: There are two reasons why the CCP keeps blaming “foreign interference” for the demonstrations in Hong Kong.
First, it is a standard CCP propaganda tactic to blame all “internal contradictions” (內部矛盾) on “foreign forces.” Aside from the convenience of setting up and attacking a strawman, the CCP will never admit that it has made a mistake or that certain things are beyond its control.
Second, the CCP is very concerned about how the international community, and especially the United States, views its handling of Hong Kong. The CCP fears that it could incur additional U.S. sanctions over the Hong Kong issue.
5. Vagueness on military intervention
When asked about whether the PLA will intervene in Hong Kong, Yang Guang merely told the reporter to check the Hong Kong Basic Law and PLA Garrison Law.
Meanwhile, Chen Daoxiang emphasized that the PLA Garrison will resolutely implement the Hong Kong Basic Law and the Garrison Law, as well as firmly support the Carrie Lam government and the Hong Kong police in “strictly enforcing the law.”
Analysis: Chen and Yang are trying not to overly alarm the international community by referring to the PLA Garrison Law when asked about possible military intervention. Yet a perusal of the Garrison Law is disconcerting.
According to Article 14 of the PLA Garrison Law, “the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region may, when necessary, ask the Central People’s Government for assistance from the Hong Kong Garrison in the maintenance of public order and in disaster relief.
In the event that the application of the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region has been approved by the Central People’s Government, the Hong Kong Garrison shall send out troops to carry out the task of assistance in maintenance of public order and in disaster relief according to the order from the Central Military Commission, and the troops shall immediately return to their station after the task has been accomplished.”
The Hong Kong government is pro-Beijing. Thus, it can be safely presumed that any request for “assistance” by the Hong Kong government to the PLA Garrison is the result of the CCP’s will.
The CCP has been signaling its willingness to use the military in Hong Kong for some time. Recent activity includes reports of PLA and armed police troops massing in neighboring Shenzhen, the PLA video showing “anti-riot” drills and preparations, and the vague statements by PRC officials. The idea behind the statements and deliberate release of information is to frighten the Hong Kong protesters into not breaching the CCP’s “bottom line.”
Get smart:
We wrote previously that the CCP is “preparing and will not hesitate to use violence and military force to ‘stop the turmoil’ in Hong Kong and ‘end the counter-revolutionary riot’ which presently threatens the ‘future and fate of the Party.’”
Business and investors must closely track developments concerning Hong Kong and make preparations for the worst.
